This view leads naturally to a shift in objective. While I have previously focu sed almost entirely on maximizing the probability of success, I have been wonder ing if I might do better to recognize that numerous failures are inevitable and focus on minimizing the cost of them. Perhaps I can move the decision point ear lier, and accept some small increase in the probability of failure in exchange f or a substantial decrease in the cost of it.
I'll get back to you in 20 years and let you know how it worked out for me. ;)