One Long Damage Limitation
Recently I have tentatively adopted a new model for life - one of an
extr emely noisy process in which the overall trend is difficult to
determine. I can be confident only that it will, on average, be much
worse than it seems during moments of success and much better than it
seems during moments of failure.
This view leads naturally to a shift in objective. While I have
previously focu sed almost entirely on maximizing the probability of
success, I have been wonder ing if I might do better to recognize that
numerous failures are inevitable and focus on minimizing the cost of
them. Perhaps I can move the decision point ear lier, and accept some
small increase in the probability of failure in exchange f or a
substantial decrease in the cost of it.
I'll get back to you in 20 years and let you know how it worked out
for me. ;)
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