One Long Damage Limitation

Recently I have tentatively adopted a new model for life - one of an extr emely noisy process in which the overall trend is difficult to determine. I can be confident only that it will, on average, be much worse than it seems during moments of success and much better than it seems during moments of failure.

This view leads naturally to a shift in objective. While I have previously focu sed almost entirely on maximizing the probability of success, I have been wonder ing if I might do better to recognize that numerous failures are inevitable and focus on minimizing the cost of them. Perhaps I can move the decision point ear lier, and accept some small increase in the probability of failure in exchange f or a substantial decrease in the cost of it.

I'll get back to you in 20 years and let you know how it worked out for me. ;)



This page most recently modified on: Friday, 25-Jan-2008 00:19:44 EST

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